Using Fibonacci 1.62 Buy Signal for ONSM

Using Fibonacci 1.62 Buy Signal for ONSM

To be a winner in this stock market, we have to find the right stock with value and the right “buy entry”. Smart money are on the upper hand where and when to pick the right stock as they are equipped with trading tools, capital, research and knowledge. They can drive the stock / market as and when they wish. They practice the right strategy in setting up buy and sell order, but we do not know what type of strategy they use and when they move the stock on the upside and the down side. We can’t beat them, but we can join them on the first day of reversal on the upside.

What sort of strategies then we want to apply in order to join them?
How can we identify the buy signal?

We knew that to make money in this stock market, we must “buy low and sell high.
However, more often, we are scared to touch the stock when the share price keep on dropping and look for another stock to play.

My previous”trading tips” spell out clearly, “buy when you are most feared or scared to touch the stock”. This is the psychological barrier that separated the 5% winners from the 95% losers in this stock market. I scanned through the stock charts on my radar screen, and feel that we can use Fibonacci 1.62 pattern for the ONSM buy entry. Remember, we will make good profit if we time correctly of our “buy entry” on the first day reversal on the upside. As usual, my disclaimer, buy at your own risk with calculated stop loss when the stock goes against your position.

“Buy Entry”

I can’t tell you exactly the price to go in until the market open. Most likely, the right entry price range from 2.45 to 2.55.

DNDN

I have talking lots about DNDN lately. We have to wait for tonight action and will monitor closely during the first half an hour. We do not know when the smart money will move this stock on the upside. We have another approximately 2 weeks from tonight awaiting approval of Provenge from FDA. The latest data I received by e-mail, June Put and Call Options is very small.

Call Strikes and Open Interest
10.00 49,014
12.50 22,349
15.00 49,225
17.50 41,927
20.00 56,825
22.50 16,594
25.00 44,336
30.00 28,548
35.00 11,915

Put Strikes and Open Interest
2.50 58,718
5.00 38,375
7.50 70,000
10.00 73,633
12.50 82,954
15.00 77,144
17.50 38,018
20.00 24,989
22.50 6,481
25.00 4,653
30.00 2,946
40.00 19,548

Stock options in May expire on May 18, 2007.

Forbes showing a doctor's efforts urging the FDA to delay the approval of Provenge. The funny thing is that open interest for the JUNE Put and Call options is very small. The interpretation of that would be that there is no expected delay in the review by speculators and investors.

Shares have traded "only" 9.65 million shares last Friday and the low for the day 15.04 that was higher than previous day of 14.94. We can expect a pick-up in the interest and trading on this probably starting tonight, the midst or end of next week.

Kenttkw,

How is your password?
Do you still have the same problem?
Write an e-mail to google about your problem.
We can’t to see your comments here.

Trading Tips based on my experienced

When to buy and when not to buy

When not to buy

1. Fund Managers recommended a stock to buy although the price almost reach top and the rally is about to end. FM will take the opportunity to off load the shares with good profit whilst you are buying without knowing it is a bad call by them.
Don’t buy

2. We do not know the bottom is after the share price open with a big gap. A sudden “big gap up” opening price on top 30 volumes on NASDAQ or NYSE after hearing rumours about the company’s new product or buy out by another big company. The rally usually will not last and the share price will go down more than 50% of high price of the day.
Don’t buy

3. A first reversal day on the down side after 3 to 4 days rally, after the good news released, the sell off will likely to continue 3 to 4 days
Don’t buy

4. We are not sure of the direction of the stock as there is no more interest from fund managers. If there is any reversal on the uptrend after the rally, this could be the short covering by fund managers and the slight increase in the price will not last.
Don’t buy

5. We are most bullish, upbeat and eager to buy not to miss the boat not knowing the decision to buy is based on emotion.
Don’t buy

6. The share price keep on dropping the important support as there is no more interest from the insiders, fund managers and day traders.
Don’t buy

7. We do not know the products and the management who run the company.
Don’t buy


When is a good buy?

1. There are so many negative comments on the company by FM, Hedge Funds, and short sellers across the media to con traders and investors into selling their shares so that they can buy at a cheaper price.
Buy

2. Sell off on good fundamental stock after the bad news on the company released on media stream and the stock price went down as low as 40% of the previous high. Usually, after half an hour of panic selling in early trading, the share price will recover 10 % to 15%. We will make good money if we buy in the first half an hour panic selling.
Buy

3. Recommendation by the Investment adviser to buy good fundamental stock learning that the sell off has reduced with thin volume and the share price stay above important support level.
Buy

4. We are most bearish, feared and scared to go in to buy the sell off good fundamental stock.
Buy

5. The stock turn around or first reversal day on the upside with good volumes and breach (break out) important resistance level is indicating there will be a good news to be announced by the company 1 to 2 weeks. This type of significant rally usually will last 2 to 4 days, pause for 2 or 3 days, and continue the rally before the announcement.
Buy

Read the following advice by Motley Fool team of Professional Investors about DNDN

So what's my point?
My point is this: You could take Wachovia's word for it and assume that because Intuitive's products make life a bit easier for surgeons, every hospital is going to buy them. Or you could discover that an actual surgeon doesn't really see a huge potential for improvement in the quality of surgery because of the robots.

Again, your interest in Intuitive may not have changed, but at least you're informed. When you're interested in businesses outside your area of expertise -- say, biopharma or advanced technologies -- you need to obtain information straight from the experts. Otherwise, you're at a clear disadvantage, and that's particularly true if you're trying to decide whether innovative treatments from biotechs such as Dendreon (Nasdaq: DNDN) and Amgen (Nasdaq: AMGN) are going to receive FDA approval.

An Expert Weighs In on Your Stock
By Nick Kapur

April 27, 2007
Wall Street analysts know a lot about businesses. But let's say you want to know what makes laser manufacturer IPG Photonics' (Nasdaq: IPGP) product new and different -- and you could talk to one of two people.
The first is an Ivy League graduate with a degree in finance. She covers 30 companies in related fields and has read many reports on the industry. The other is an accelerator physicist with a degree from Stanford.

Trust superior knowledge
Whose advice are you going to take? While both are capable individuals, I'd be willing to put money on the fact that this analyst doesn't spend her spare time in a lab trying to slam together charged particles. In fact, I'd guess that the analyst would rehash some of what she read in IPG's 10-K:
Because fiber lasers are much more energy-efficient and place lower levels of thermal stress on their internal components, they have substantially lower cooling requirements compared to conventional lasers.

The accelerator physicist, however, might have a different perspective:
This really depends on the fiber laser. For similar output powers, the pump diodes will require similar cooling whether we're talking fiber or crystal (again with caveats about relative efficiency, operational modes, environment, etc.).
Regardless of whether you're now more or less interested in buying IPG after reading what the physicist had to say, you're at least now more informed. And you don't need me to tell you that information is the name of the game in this business.
Switching industries, sticking with experts

Now let's say you're an investor and you need to know if Intuitive Surgical's (Nasdaq: ISRG) surgical robots are really going to revolutionize health care. As is custom, you might be inclined to check out an analyst report from a major investment house. Here's a report from Wachovia Capital Markets this month:
Robotic Surgery is a "win-win-win" providing benefits for the hospital (ROI), surgeon (easier surgery), and patient (better outcomes).
On the other side, let's take a look at what you might hear when you talk to a urological surgeon with decades of experience:
There are always going to be stellar surgeons and not so stellar surgeons. Within the robotic field, the hierarchy is already being established -- in the same manner as in open urologic pelvic surgery. Some of the names have been changed, that's all. ... (A patient) will still want to go to the high-volume hospital and surgeon for the best outcomes.

So what's my point?
My point is this: You could take Wachovia's word for it and assume that because Intuitive's products make life a bit easier for surgeons, every hospital is going to buy them. Or you could discover that an actual surgeon doesn't really see a huge potential for improvement in the quality of surgery because of the robots.

Again, your interest in Intuitive may not have changed, but at least you're informed. When you're interested in businesses outside your area of expertise -- say, biopharma or advanced technologies -- you need to obtain information straight from the experts. Otherwise, you're at a clear disadvantage, and that's particularly true if you're trying to decide whether innovative treatments from biotechs such as Dendreon (Nasdaq: DNDN) and Amgen (Nasdaq: AMGN) are going to receive FDA approval.


Experts win
Consider, for example, the case of T. Rowe Price Health Sciences (PRHSX). The fund, which has 96% of its assets invested in health care, has crushed the market over the past decade, posting nearly 13% annualized returns. And where does much of that fund's intelligence come from? Fund manager Kris Jenner -- a money manager who also happens to be a medical doctor. It's worth noting that Jenner has made sizable bets on Gilead Sciences (Nasdaq: GILD), Cephalon (Nasdaq: CEPH), Genentech (NYSE: DNA), and Amgen -- the fund's top four holdings, making up almost 14% of net assets.
So how can you gain expertise? You could sneak into some postgraduate lecture halls, attend industry conferences, or put on a lab coat and waltz into the operating room (well, if they'll let you). Another great resource is our growing community of investors at Motley Fool Rule Breakers, where we specialize in finding high-growth stocks poised to revolutionize their industries. We have scientists theorizing about SunPower's latest solar cell, doctors critiquing Pfizer's pipeline, and engineers who can break down Cisco System's newest products.
Oh, and in case you were wondering, those expert excerpts above were taken straight from our community discussion boards.

The power of knowledge and superior returns
If you're looking at complex industries and you want to make money, it's in your best interest to consult an expert. It's the only way you can gain an edge over the widely published information that saturates the market today. Rule Breakers can help you do so. Click here to try the service free for 30 days with no obligation to subscribe.

Recap last night trades

kenttkw

I had something to attend to just now after telephone conversation, so no time to write about DNDN.

DNDN is down now @15.20
I have yet to see DNDN to break new low that is 14.82

morsid, I cut loss DYN last night after found out negative news
Bought 600 9.96 and sold 9.59
Tonight the price down 9.75 now.

ONSM look interesting now, looking for 2.40

I also bought FMD 200 @37.90, now 38.80
Upgraded by JP Morgan from "neutral to overweight"

kenttkw

If your google ok, please some comments

Revert to stocks with fundamentals

The rally on the stocks below $3.00 by MM’s are over after the released of FDA approval leaving the traders disappointed seeing in disbelief of a sudden sell of by MMs.
It is time for us to look for beaten down stocks above $5.00 and with promising future growth.

Currently, there are 3 stocks put on my radar screen that I believe the share price will turn around on the upside within 2 weeks and thereafter. One of them is CVTX (refer to Video column on top of this blog) and the other 2, PMTI and DYN.

Do your own DD, go to Finance Yahoo and Motley Fool, check the company’s financial statement and business forecast for on coming months and years, and their competitors.

We can trade in small quantity, 100 to 300 shares or more. The trading pattern, range from 0.50 cents to $2.00 and above. The advantage of gains for stocks above $5.00 is greater than stocks below $5.00. There are more coverage for stocks above $5.00 by Top Rank Analysts and buying interests by Institutional Investors.

Stocks below $5.00 mostly played by small time Money Managers and traders and become the target of “Paid Basher”.

My performances on stocks picking above $5.00 to $50.00 are far better than stocks below $5.00. On the average, 8 winners out of 10 picks.

CVTX - Buy on pull back 8.60 to 8.80 before the break out.
DYN – Buy on pull back below 9.90
PMTI – Buy on pull back below 40.50


StockCharts.com server is down, no stock charts attached.


Other stocks on my radar screen

MAS, NVDA, NSTK, AMD, DNDN, FMD, ERTS and TZOO.

Buy The Rumour Sell The News

MGRM, no reaction from investors over the PFE positive results from FDA. Investors were not impressed of Maraviroc suspected to be no safety and risks to the patients. There are many better products available in the market compared to Maraviroc. MGRM share rallied from 2.19 to 2.45 minutes before the news is published in media. The rally last for 2 to 3 minutes, the share of MGRM went down as low as 2.10. It was pure manipulation by MMs and insiders.

Imagine, there were more than 5 millions of MGRM shares within 2 to 3 minutes. I bought MGRM 2K earlier at 2.16 before the news and was ready to push the button to execute sell order. I also observed Poem on Line status shown, buy 2.18 and sell 2.19 and was not flicking at all, whilst Alphatrade, buy 2.38 and sell 2.39. It was shocking to see that Poem server could not update real time update of buy and sell price whenever there was a big volume buy and sell transaction took place. Whilst I was trying to figure out why such thing could happened, MGRM price already down to 2.29. I immediately keyed in the sell order at 2.20 knowing that it was selling pressure, and my sell order done at 2.20.

The real story of the above is that, we can’t rely on Poem on line as it is 1 to 2 minutes delay compared to Alphatrade real time.

ONT, closed at 2.48 and went down to 2.27 after hours after the management announced of the share placement offered by the company to one of the institutional funds. I sold 1K of ONT at 2.30.

VION, I will be monitoring this counter tonight and will post later tonight the company fundamental and their future growth.

Yesterday transaction
MGRM Bought 3K – sold 1K 2.29 and 2K 2.20
ONT Bought 1K 2.21 – sold 1K 2.30
DNDN Bought 300 shares 16.70 – sold 300 shares 16.85

DNDN Pick of the Day

DNDN Pick of the Day

kenttk, finally you are here

Before we begin with the stock to watch tonight, let evaluate our performance in the market. We have been repeating the same mistake, day in day out without analyzing our short coming and weaknesses for months if not years. Why are we ignoring the costly mistake that will siphon our reserves in the bank for our family and our future? I was also experiencing a similar dilemma back in year 1999. It is prudent for us think, plan, get one self organize and take action. We have to release ourselves form this uncomfortable situation, losing streak in the market.

We conducted brainstorming session in the work place with the employees to solve problem and get organized. Similarly, we also have to list down the details of our strengths and weaknesses to turn around from a “loser” to a “winner”. How can we achieve this?

We have to equip ourselves with (i) knowledge, (ii) trading tools, (iii) good machine, (iv) capital, and most crucial is to control our (v) emotion. If we do not have one of the four, it is the same like we are sitting on a chair with a three leg. Can we sit on the chair with three legs?

Let me share with you my experience when I was trading back in year 1999. I bought the stock based on finance yahoo message board recommendation, little knowledge in share market, without trading tools and my emotion outweighed the fundamentals and the results were disasters. Most of us are aware that 95% of traders and investors are losers. We must upgrade ourselves equipped of the above (i) to (v) and become one of the 5% winner camp. If we were to continue trading and missing one of the above 5, I am afraid we are going to lose money every month. May be we will win 2 or 3 out of 10 trades with little gains but lose big on another 7 trades. We have to invest, example subscribe to “real time chart” (is a must for a trader) that would help us to execute the buy and sell order, in order to be successful.

Emotion

We bring our emotion wherever we go, emotion relate to our personal character that will affect us in every decision that we make. We have to eliminate our negative emotion that is exist in our little voice to be independent and thus we are able see our blind spot and make a decision with a clear mind. Logically speaking, there are biases and prejudices in our little voice, we all have ones. “We have to remember negative emotion will outweigh fundamentals and logics.

My trading experience last night.

I was holding 4K shares of MGRM, and my target price to sell is $2.50. However, there was a negative comment of PFE made by Prudential and the high price for MGRM was $2.41, so, I sold my 4K shares with a small gains and the share prices of MGRM went down as low as 2.20 eventually. I do not allow my emotion to outweigh fundamentals, and I can buy back later at a lower price. The point here is that we must be realistic if we know that the target price is not within reach last night, we have to sell with a small gain.

Another case DNDN

I bought DNDN 300 shares at $16.70; the price went down to $16.39 after 15 minutes and was trading range from $16.40 to $16.60. After looking at fundamental, since yesterday was the first day reversal on the uptrend with huge volume, refer to attached chart, I did not sell in panic like most of traders in Wall Street did. The price closed $16.78 at the end of the day, after hour $17.05.

The above are the examples, how emotion can outweigh the fundamentals.

If we look at the chart of DNDN, the rally will usually last 3 to 4 days. But remember, DNDN is also another volatile trading pattern. I believe, there are many smart money, the Big Guys are watching and playing this stock. The result of DNDN products will be released by FDA on May 15.

I also bought 1K of MGRM.

ONT, have been accumulated by MM, range from 2.01 to 2.15, the support.
Next support 2.08 and 2.01.

ONSM, I don’t see any buying interest in the past 3 days.
Support 2.74 and 2.69, so I will buy again within this range.

Let’s practice what you have learned in order to be a successful person in everything you do.

Stock watch for next week

We can’t touch the stock that ran up for the first and 2nd day rally as we do not know the real interest participated by MM and traders. We have yet to really digest the recent announcement made by the company before we could attempt any trade. Due diligence is required on our part to find out the true value of the products and the management who run the company. It will take 2 to 3 days for the analysts, institutional investors to put their stake in the company upon the release of the news. Patient is needed if we want to be a successful trader/investor to make money in this market. Look at the technical and fundamental of the company.

See, what happened to AVNR, there are many traders who got stuck with their shares bought over $5.00 at this moment. We do not know where the bottom and the support are. When we are uncertain of the trade, it would be wise for us not to trade until the third day look out for indicator and fundamental.

We have to go back to basic that are “Risks and Rewards” involves. One can only ascertain the “Rewards” after close monitoring of the stock, technical and fundamental analysis.

ONT

The consolidation and profit taking would have just completed yesterday and it is about to begin the next rally may be 2 to 3 days into next week. As many Wall Street watchers observed that it is the work of Hedge Funds who intentionally shorted the stock to scare the small time traders and investors to sell the stock when they can buy the stock at a discounted price. This is the opportunity for us to buy Big (based on your capital reserves) and ride the uptrend. Buy entry either below 2.30 or 2.40.

ONSM will follow the ONT as they are on the same products.

MGRM

It had been very volatile trading for the past 2 days and also become the target of the Hedge Funds. Meanwhile, Thomas Weisel Partners began covering the biotech sector. The firm says a Monogram Biosciences (nasdaq: MGRM - news - people ) HIV diagnostic test is a trailblazer and predicts Monogram's revenue will continue to gain into next year.

It is against my discipline to jump into this stock within 2 up days, but after looking at the trading pattern of MGRM for 2 days, based on high opening in the morning; it is worth a punt and rides the wave on the uptrend as the “Rewards” are higher than the “Risks”.

I will not make any comments on ONSM at this moment.
Feel free to give your views of the above.

Daily Stock Picks

AVNR is pure speculative trade by MM’s & Day traders. It was very volatile with huge trading range between 3.86 low and high 6.75 and the price closed at 3.90 eventually last night. One cannot attempt trade without “Real Time Chart” for AVNR. Take a closer look at 10 minutes chart below on the right, the price pierced through all the support lines after 10.30 AM US time. Similar patterns were also seen on MDII, MGRM and ONT.
However, the above 4 stocks do not follow Compx and AMEX performance.

ONT is the only counter that could have found the bottom at 2.01 and bounced off closed at 2.15.
Support EMA 9 2.10
Resistance EMA 20 1.87

Trading for a living

Welcome to my blog. We can discuss and express whatever in our mind or our in little voice with regards to US stock market. I shall also open other topics for discussion but not today.

Daily Stock Picks

The outlook of US stock market tonight is in the negative after the profit taking by the Fund Managers and Traders across Asia market today. Yes, like I said, do not expect the market to go up everyday as the profit on paper will only be materialized upon cash out. We will expect a knee jerk reaction in early trading, 1st half an hour by the shortist, Fund managers and traders. However, this panic selling is an opportunity for us to buy at a discounted price.

I don't know whether you have cash out your profit for ONSM yesterday. The support for ONSM at $3.00. Tonight, I will be monitoring ONSM and AVNR, new counter.

Wednesday, April 18, 2007
AVNR is the next DNDN?

AVNR closed @ 5.19

Volume today on a successful study result was humongous - over 80 million shares traded, 2x the outstanding shares! That kind of volume we saw with DNDN after a positive fda review. I don't know what's really going on in terms of who's buying who's selling or who cares about this company, but i do know that 80 million shares trades is significant. As such, i put in a play with June 10 calls and see what happens.

Last year, Cramer recommended this stock at 12. His listeners hated him for that one. lol

Very speculative play, all or nothing.

Link to Finance Yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AVNR

Feel free to post your comments