What's up DNDN

Hi Guys

I was not available in the 3 days for the update
Please continue to post in my absence
Shall update later on DNDN technical

DNDN is Wall Street darling for Longs and Shorts

Hi guys,

DNDN is the stock that one can make good money and also lose big if we do not have right trading strategy. “Plan your trade and trade as planned”, minimize your loses and ride realistic profit. If we exercise what we have learned, one day we will become a successful trader.

As expected, the sell off resumed today after 2 days bear rally. Is it safe to go long today? I’m not sure; we have to wait till the end of the day. More often than not, the sell off will resume the next trading day after the first reversal day on the down side.

I shall continue with my views on DNDN after market close.

DNDN UPDATE & ONT

Lets recap the bruising of DNDN share price plummeted from 25.25 backed to 4.95 after the released of FDA reviews of Provenge.
Insiders could have received the reply from FDA 1 week in advance before the 2nd rally that rode the share price up to 21.80. One would be able to identify there was a huge block of shares were off loaded, could be by insiders, on May 4 Friday. The sell off resumed on Tuesday and share price close at 17.74. FDA reviews were officially released early on Wednesday morning that lead to the sell off before the market open. It was pure manipulation by the insiders that caught traders and investors off guard seeing the shares price being hammered by hedge funds.

How to recover loses?

We have to go back to basic, "Plan your trade and trade as planned". I will not hesitate to cut loss on the first day of the sell off in anticipating further loses that could affect my emotion mentally. We would not be able to focus our next trading plan as the wound could harm us emotionally. There are lots of uncertainty clouded over DNDN development within the next quarters, although there could be a plan made by the management to present required data by FDA.

Meanwhile, DNDN share price rebounded after hitting 4.95 low and closed at 6.11. The rally could last another 2 or 3 days only as there could be traders and investors who would sell their holding at strength. Short covering by hedge funds would send the share price up to 6.47 (Fib 1.62) and 7.65 (Fib 6.82) on Monday and Tuesday. The sell off will resume after the short covering ended.
See attached DNDN chart.

ONT

kenttkw

Remember, Buy the rumor, Sell the news
Resistance at 3.04, see attached chart

Guys

Do not repeat the same mistake, lock your gains when necessary.
Don't let your profit turn into loses

Decision is yours

JMHO

DNDN Update

IDMI failure pulled down DNDN as well yesterday.
DNDN must stay above EMA 9, otherwise, it will re-visit previous low of $15

Adam

Hold tight your seat belts, the price can swing both ways as May 15 is near

Morsid, kenttkw

Did you buy yesterday?
Otherwise stay on the side line

DNDN Outlook for next week

Let’s recap on Fundamentals and Technical of DNDN

Fundamentals

DNDN upside from here

As evidenced by the prostate cancer patient advocacy groups at the March 29 Cellular, Tissue, & Gene Therapy Advisory Committee as well as by physicians interviewed on every media outlet in the recent days, the demand for Provenge seems to be very high right off the bat, so assuming a 65% penetration rate 3 years after approval could be a fair assumption here.

Peak revenues (US market): 65% x 50,000 * $45,000 = $1.462 billion

Discount the peak revenue by 12.5% per year for 3 years and one arrives at $1.0 billion.


Biotechs with promising pipelines typically trade at 7 to 20 price/sales, so by taking the low end of the above range we can conservatively assume that after Provenge's approval, the price per share of Dendreon will eventually reflect a market cap of at least $7 billion.


DNDN has 82 million shares outstanding, ~$100 million in cash as of 3/31, and can sell up to $200 million worth of its common stock on its current shelf. Assuming another dilution round (possibly as part of a RoW partnership deal), another 10-15 million shares could then be added to the float for a total of around 100 million shares.

Hence, a price per share of $70 within several months post approval is not out of the question.

Based on its current price per share of around $19
, one could easily argue that DNDN's share price is much undervalued, considering that Provenge is highly likely to be approved by May 15. The FDA usually follows the recommendation of its Advisory Committees, and especially so when the indication is a terminal one and the advisory panel has recommended that the therapy is both safe and substantially effective. Thursday’s CTGTAC voted 17 to 0 that Provenge was safe and 13 to 4 that it showed substantial evidence of efficacy.

My views

On top of the above, there is about “41% of short interest” that could double or triple DNDN share price from here.

Technical Analysis

DNDN share price keep on rising from May 1 to May 4, four days rally in anticipating May 15 approval. It was normal for traders to lock their gains on Friday after decent increase in DNDN share price last week. There could be profit taking in early AM Monday and the share price will gradually rise in the afternoon trade.

Consolidation in uptrend stock is the opportunity for traders and investors to buy on weakness upon market open on Monday. The rally will continue until next Friday. This is the type of trade that promise one to make a huge gains in one stock, build up capital and confidence, and also the beginning of the new era as a successful trader.

See latest chart attached
.

Pick of the week DNDN

Morsid,

I have nothing to comment about DNDN, just refer to previous posts and take a closer look at the chart

Tonight will be bargain hunting, buy on pull back. We will never see below $20 next week.

DNDN, CVTX & ONT

DNDN

Today will the 3rd day rally.
Will buying momentum continue today?
Looking at the chart, DNDN will re-visit previous high of 25.25.
Let’s see once the markets open.

The sell off for CVTX & and ONT ended yesterday.
It’s time for bargain hunting of the above stocks.

Morsid, you choose to lock your gain from 50% of your shares. The remainder, wait until tomorrow or Monday.

I shall continue to accumulate on pull back or asses the situation.