What's up DNDN

Hi Guys

I was not available in the 3 days for the update
Please continue to post in my absence
Shall update later on DNDN technical

DNDN is Wall Street darling for Longs and Shorts

Hi guys,

DNDN is the stock that one can make good money and also lose big if we do not have right trading strategy. “Plan your trade and trade as planned”, minimize your loses and ride realistic profit. If we exercise what we have learned, one day we will become a successful trader.

As expected, the sell off resumed today after 2 days bear rally. Is it safe to go long today? I’m not sure; we have to wait till the end of the day. More often than not, the sell off will resume the next trading day after the first reversal day on the down side.

I shall continue with my views on DNDN after market close.

DNDN UPDATE & ONT

Lets recap the bruising of DNDN share price plummeted from 25.25 backed to 4.95 after the released of FDA reviews of Provenge.
Insiders could have received the reply from FDA 1 week in advance before the 2nd rally that rode the share price up to 21.80. One would be able to identify there was a huge block of shares were off loaded, could be by insiders, on May 4 Friday. The sell off resumed on Tuesday and share price close at 17.74. FDA reviews were officially released early on Wednesday morning that lead to the sell off before the market open. It was pure manipulation by the insiders that caught traders and investors off guard seeing the shares price being hammered by hedge funds.

How to recover loses?

We have to go back to basic, "Plan your trade and trade as planned". I will not hesitate to cut loss on the first day of the sell off in anticipating further loses that could affect my emotion mentally. We would not be able to focus our next trading plan as the wound could harm us emotionally. There are lots of uncertainty clouded over DNDN development within the next quarters, although there could be a plan made by the management to present required data by FDA.

Meanwhile, DNDN share price rebounded after hitting 4.95 low and closed at 6.11. The rally could last another 2 or 3 days only as there could be traders and investors who would sell their holding at strength. Short covering by hedge funds would send the share price up to 6.47 (Fib 1.62) and 7.65 (Fib 6.82) on Monday and Tuesday. The sell off will resume after the short covering ended.
See attached DNDN chart.

ONT

kenttkw

Remember, Buy the rumor, Sell the news
Resistance at 3.04, see attached chart

Guys

Do not repeat the same mistake, lock your gains when necessary.
Don't let your profit turn into loses

Decision is yours

JMHO

DNDN Update

IDMI failure pulled down DNDN as well yesterday.
DNDN must stay above EMA 9, otherwise, it will re-visit previous low of $15

Adam

Hold tight your seat belts, the price can swing both ways as May 15 is near

Morsid, kenttkw

Did you buy yesterday?
Otherwise stay on the side line

DNDN Outlook for next week

Let’s recap on Fundamentals and Technical of DNDN

Fundamentals

DNDN upside from here

As evidenced by the prostate cancer patient advocacy groups at the March 29 Cellular, Tissue, & Gene Therapy Advisory Committee as well as by physicians interviewed on every media outlet in the recent days, the demand for Provenge seems to be very high right off the bat, so assuming a 65% penetration rate 3 years after approval could be a fair assumption here.

Peak revenues (US market): 65% x 50,000 * $45,000 = $1.462 billion

Discount the peak revenue by 12.5% per year for 3 years and one arrives at $1.0 billion.


Biotechs with promising pipelines typically trade at 7 to 20 price/sales, so by taking the low end of the above range we can conservatively assume that after Provenge's approval, the price per share of Dendreon will eventually reflect a market cap of at least $7 billion.


DNDN has 82 million shares outstanding, ~$100 million in cash as of 3/31, and can sell up to $200 million worth of its common stock on its current shelf. Assuming another dilution round (possibly as part of a RoW partnership deal), another 10-15 million shares could then be added to the float for a total of around 100 million shares.

Hence, a price per share of $70 within several months post approval is not out of the question.

Based on its current price per share of around $19
, one could easily argue that DNDN's share price is much undervalued, considering that Provenge is highly likely to be approved by May 15. The FDA usually follows the recommendation of its Advisory Committees, and especially so when the indication is a terminal one and the advisory panel has recommended that the therapy is both safe and substantially effective. Thursday’s CTGTAC voted 17 to 0 that Provenge was safe and 13 to 4 that it showed substantial evidence of efficacy.

My views

On top of the above, there is about “41% of short interest” that could double or triple DNDN share price from here.

Technical Analysis

DNDN share price keep on rising from May 1 to May 4, four days rally in anticipating May 15 approval. It was normal for traders to lock their gains on Friday after decent increase in DNDN share price last week. There could be profit taking in early AM Monday and the share price will gradually rise in the afternoon trade.

Consolidation in uptrend stock is the opportunity for traders and investors to buy on weakness upon market open on Monday. The rally will continue until next Friday. This is the type of trade that promise one to make a huge gains in one stock, build up capital and confidence, and also the beginning of the new era as a successful trader.

See latest chart attached
.

Pick of the week DNDN

Morsid,

I have nothing to comment about DNDN, just refer to previous posts and take a closer look at the chart

Tonight will be bargain hunting, buy on pull back. We will never see below $20 next week.

DNDN, CVTX & ONT

DNDN

Today will the 3rd day rally.
Will buying momentum continue today?
Looking at the chart, DNDN will re-visit previous high of 25.25.
Let’s see once the markets open.

The sell off for CVTX & and ONT ended yesterday.
It’s time for bargain hunting of the above stocks.

Morsid, you choose to lock your gain from 50% of your shares. The remainder, wait until tomorrow or Monday.

I shall continue to accumulate on pull back or asses the situation.

DNDN -Countdown FDA May 15

SEEKING ALPHA STILL THE BEST 70 TARGET WITHIN MONTHS POST APPROVAL GREAT READ

SeekingAlpha
Dendreon Corporation: The Next Biotech Winner
Wednesday April 4, 1:51 pm ET


Hillel Shakked submits: Many have noticed Friday's remarkable price movement in Dendreon Corporation (NasdaqGM: DNDN) and are wondering what the upside from here is. In the report below, I will run a back-of-an-envelope analysis for DNDN's current evaluation and will discuss its longer term potential.
ADVERTISEMENT

Let me start with a basic valuation model:

Leading therapeutic vaccine candidate, Provenge, is currently being evaluated by the FDA for AIPC (androgen-independent prostate cancer), the terminal stage of the disease also known as hormone-independent prostate cancer [HRPC]. Patients diagnosed with AIPC typically have a 16 to 18 month life expectancy.
Market size: ~150,000 current prevalence, with 50,000 newly diagnosed patients every year (US only)
Treatment cost: est. $15,000-$20,000 per infusion - 3 infusions are needed for the treatment, administered two weeks apart; cost not specified yet

Competition: Taxotere, a very strong chemotherapy drug, is the only drug approved by the FDA for AIPC that has a proven survival benefit. Over 50% of asymptomatic (without bone pain) AIPC patients prefer NOT to use Taxotere due to its relatively severe side effects. Note that in its pivotal clinical trial, Taxotere showed a median survival [MS] benefit of 3.2 months in the asymptomatic subgroup (in comparison to Provenge's 4.5 month MS benefit).

Market potential – I'll be conservative to assume 65% penetration rate and a cost of $45,000 per patient (in line with the modern cancer biologics - Avastin, Herceptin, Erbitux etc). Which doctor will not recommend that his patient try a drug that has a markedly less severe side effect profile than Taxotere and that has shown a greater MS benefit in both of its Phase 3 trials? As evidenced by the prostate cancer patient advocacy groups at the March 29 Cellular, Tissue, & Gene Therapy Advisory Committee as well as by physicians interviewed on every media outlet in the recent days, the demand for Provenge seems to be very high right off the bat, so assuming a 65% penetration rate 3 years after approval could be a fair assumption here.

Peak revenues (US market): 65% x 50,000 * $45,000 = $1.462 billion

Discount the peak revenue by 12.5% per year for 3 years and one arrives at $1.0 billion.

Biotechs with promising pipelines typically trade at 7 to 20 price/sales, so by taking the low end of the above range we can conservatively assume that after Provenge's approval, the price per share of Dendreon will eventually reflect a market cap of at least $7 billion.


DNDN has 82 million shares outstanding, ~$100 million in cash as of 3/31, and can sell up to $200 million worth of its common stock on its current shelf. Assuming another dilution round (possibly as part of a RoW partnership deal), another 10-15 million shares could then be added to the float for a total of around 100 million shares.

Hence, a price per share of $70 within several months post approval is not out of the question.

Based on its current price per share of around $13, one could easily argue that DNDN's share price is very undervalued, considering that Provenge is highly likely to be approved by May 15. The FDA usually follows the recommendation of its Advisory Committees, and especially so when the indication is a terminal one and the advisory panel has recommended that the therapy is both safe and substantially effective. Thursday’s CTGTAC voted 17 to 0 that Provenge was safe and 13 to 4 that it showed substantial evidence of efficacy.

The efficacy vote came with a great deal of excitement because the efficacy question, as originally written in the FDA's briefing documents, was unusually stringent and did not follow FDA guidelines. The question originally worded by the FDA was “Did the treatment establish efficacy?” When the term “establish” was interpreted and vocalized by the first three advisory panel members to mean “100% conclusiveness,” the committee chairman, Dr. James Mule, halted the voting and asked the FDA attendees if the question was worded properly, noting that “substantial efficacy” is the language in the FDA’s own guidelines for drug approvals. The two high-ranking FDA officials attending the meeting agreed with Dr. Mule and corrected the overly stringent terminology. The revised question was re-asked, “Does the product demonstrate substantial evidence of efficacy?” The first three panel members immediately reversed their votes, and the final panel vote on efficacy was 13 Yes and 4 No.

More to Follow

The price per share calculation above was based only on revenues in the US market. Provenge sales from the rest of the world [ROW] could eventually match US revenues. DNDN has stated that it would like to partner Provenge with a larger biopharma company. Signing a lucrative ROW partnership agreement with a healthy upfront payment and sales milestones, in addition to 20-25% royalties is certainly conceivable post-US approval. Hence, another 25% pop in the pps can be expected when a ROW is announced.

ADPC (androgen-dependent prostate cancer) indication: The market size of this earlier stage of advanced prostate cancer comprising patients who are still responding to androgen blockers is estimated at two to three times larger than the AIPC market. In mid-2005, Dendreon completed enrollment in a Phase 3 clinical trial that randomized patients to the treatment arm of Provenge plus Lupron or to the control arm of Lupron plus sham Provenge (saline solution). Final data is still years away, but initial results from the earliest enrolled patients have so far shown that Provenge appears to be delaying the rise in PSA from the 0.0 level to the 3.0 level.

Neuvenge, etc: Dendreon was forced to suspend its follow-on immunotherapy drug, Neuvenge, for breast and ovarian cancer patients who are HER2/Neu positive, in order to conserve its cash. The relentless short selling of DNDN shares blocked the ability of the company to raise enough money without significant dilution. The Neuvenge Phase 2 results showed excellent promise, so it is hoped that this program can be restarted shortly after approval, three years after its suspension.

21st Century Medicine

By approving Provenge (PDUFA date is May 15), the FDA jumpstarts cancer therapy into the 21st Century—this is a personalized treatment called autologous immunotherapy—using the patient’s own cells and it is based on Dendreon's patented Antigen Delivery Cassette platform. It is important to note that Dendreon holds numerous patents, as well as exclusive and nonexclusive licenses to use over 20 other antigens for future therapeutic vaccine development. In other words, once DNDN scientists find the most appropriate antigen target expressed in any type of cancer, the same procedure used in administering Provenge immunotherapy can be applied.

What are the odds of approval? Based on the Advisory Committee [AC] vote of 13 to 4, the odds seem to be quite high. Moreover, surveying the outcomes of the recent FDA Advisory Committees, the FDA has approved 37 of the last 38 treatments following a positive recommendation from an Advisory Committee. The current FDA commissioner is a urological oncologist and prostate cancer survivor whose father passed away from AIPC, who has publicly stated more than once that FDA will serve as a “bridge” to new cancer therapy and not an obstacle, and has gone on record as saying that cancer can be conquered by 2015. If he were to reject this innovative therapy after such a strong positive AC vote and after such passionate and emotional appeals from prostate cancer patients and advocacy groups, his words will ring hollow. What cancer patients are asking is that they have a choice; that they make the final decision about their therapy and that a 1 in 40 chance that the statistically significant survival benefit seen in Provenge’s pivotal 9901 trial was a false positive (as stated in the FDA biostatistical briefing document) does not bother them, especially when the treatment has such a mild side effect profile.

It may very well be that the CBER division of the FDA (biologics) has decided to move forward into the 21st Century, leaving the CDER division (drugs) in the dust and rendering its 1960s-1970s mentality of preferring 800 to 1,000-patient cancer trials featuring toxic chemo regimens obsolete. CDER's "vision" of extending survival by two or three more months but making the participants feel miserable (or killing or hospitalizing them) is 20th Century thought, not 21st.

Dendreon is weeks away from pioneering the "21st century medicine" and based on their robust technology, they could very well turn into the next Amgen (NasdaqGS: AMGN) and Genentech (NYSE: DNA - News).

Disclosure: Author has a long position in Dendreon

Buy on pull back, below $16.00 or below $16.50
Support $15.88

The stock that is good for a day trader (CVTX)

Take a look at Nasdaq chart, consolidation will pull along index stocks, AAPL, MSFT, INTC, NVDA, BRCM and others.

CVTX

The stock is good for a trader. We have to observe low price of the day to go in, usually in early am trade. We can go in and out everyday or twice a week. Look at the chart for the resistance and support.

DNDN

Closely watched by most smart money, fund managers, professional & small traders. The review for approval from FDA is on May 15. Volume traded is decreasing towards $15.00 so selling pressures. It is getting interesting now as the shares have accumulated by the smart money before the next rally is about to begin, probably tonight, tomorrow or end of the week. Chart attached

ONSM

Sold at 2.49, and will re-renter tonight in early trade. We have to identify trading pattern of individual stock the selling and buying time of the day. Reason for the pull back could be the news released yesterday. The sale of On-stream Media restricted common stock at $2.25 per share. Chart attached

AVNR

The opening price is usually higher than the closing price. The only way to make money from this trade is to buy before market close.

Using Fibonacci 1.62 Buy Signal for ONSM

Using Fibonacci 1.62 Buy Signal for ONSM

To be a winner in this stock market, we have to find the right stock with value and the right “buy entry”. Smart money are on the upper hand where and when to pick the right stock as they are equipped with trading tools, capital, research and knowledge. They can drive the stock / market as and when they wish. They practice the right strategy in setting up buy and sell order, but we do not know what type of strategy they use and when they move the stock on the upside and the down side. We can’t beat them, but we can join them on the first day of reversal on the upside.

What sort of strategies then we want to apply in order to join them?
How can we identify the buy signal?

We knew that to make money in this stock market, we must “buy low and sell high.
However, more often, we are scared to touch the stock when the share price keep on dropping and look for another stock to play.

My previous”trading tips” spell out clearly, “buy when you are most feared or scared to touch the stock”. This is the psychological barrier that separated the 5% winners from the 95% losers in this stock market. I scanned through the stock charts on my radar screen, and feel that we can use Fibonacci 1.62 pattern for the ONSM buy entry. Remember, we will make good profit if we time correctly of our “buy entry” on the first day reversal on the upside. As usual, my disclaimer, buy at your own risk with calculated stop loss when the stock goes against your position.

“Buy Entry”

I can’t tell you exactly the price to go in until the market open. Most likely, the right entry price range from 2.45 to 2.55.

DNDN

I have talking lots about DNDN lately. We have to wait for tonight action and will monitor closely during the first half an hour. We do not know when the smart money will move this stock on the upside. We have another approximately 2 weeks from tonight awaiting approval of Provenge from FDA. The latest data I received by e-mail, June Put and Call Options is very small.

Call Strikes and Open Interest
10.00 49,014
12.50 22,349
15.00 49,225
17.50 41,927
20.00 56,825
22.50 16,594
25.00 44,336
30.00 28,548
35.00 11,915

Put Strikes and Open Interest
2.50 58,718
5.00 38,375
7.50 70,000
10.00 73,633
12.50 82,954
15.00 77,144
17.50 38,018
20.00 24,989
22.50 6,481
25.00 4,653
30.00 2,946
40.00 19,548

Stock options in May expire on May 18, 2007.

Forbes showing a doctor's efforts urging the FDA to delay the approval of Provenge. The funny thing is that open interest for the JUNE Put and Call options is very small. The interpretation of that would be that there is no expected delay in the review by speculators and investors.

Shares have traded "only" 9.65 million shares last Friday and the low for the day 15.04 that was higher than previous day of 14.94. We can expect a pick-up in the interest and trading on this probably starting tonight, the midst or end of next week.

Kenttkw,

How is your password?
Do you still have the same problem?
Write an e-mail to google about your problem.
We can’t to see your comments here.

Trading Tips based on my experienced

When to buy and when not to buy

When not to buy

1. Fund Managers recommended a stock to buy although the price almost reach top and the rally is about to end. FM will take the opportunity to off load the shares with good profit whilst you are buying without knowing it is a bad call by them.
Don’t buy

2. We do not know the bottom is after the share price open with a big gap. A sudden “big gap up” opening price on top 30 volumes on NASDAQ or NYSE after hearing rumours about the company’s new product or buy out by another big company. The rally usually will not last and the share price will go down more than 50% of high price of the day.
Don’t buy

3. A first reversal day on the down side after 3 to 4 days rally, after the good news released, the sell off will likely to continue 3 to 4 days
Don’t buy

4. We are not sure of the direction of the stock as there is no more interest from fund managers. If there is any reversal on the uptrend after the rally, this could be the short covering by fund managers and the slight increase in the price will not last.
Don’t buy

5. We are most bullish, upbeat and eager to buy not to miss the boat not knowing the decision to buy is based on emotion.
Don’t buy

6. The share price keep on dropping the important support as there is no more interest from the insiders, fund managers and day traders.
Don’t buy

7. We do not know the products and the management who run the company.
Don’t buy


When is a good buy?

1. There are so many negative comments on the company by FM, Hedge Funds, and short sellers across the media to con traders and investors into selling their shares so that they can buy at a cheaper price.
Buy

2. Sell off on good fundamental stock after the bad news on the company released on media stream and the stock price went down as low as 40% of the previous high. Usually, after half an hour of panic selling in early trading, the share price will recover 10 % to 15%. We will make good money if we buy in the first half an hour panic selling.
Buy

3. Recommendation by the Investment adviser to buy good fundamental stock learning that the sell off has reduced with thin volume and the share price stay above important support level.
Buy

4. We are most bearish, feared and scared to go in to buy the sell off good fundamental stock.
Buy

5. The stock turn around or first reversal day on the upside with good volumes and breach (break out) important resistance level is indicating there will be a good news to be announced by the company 1 to 2 weeks. This type of significant rally usually will last 2 to 4 days, pause for 2 or 3 days, and continue the rally before the announcement.
Buy

Read the following advice by Motley Fool team of Professional Investors about DNDN

So what's my point?
My point is this: You could take Wachovia's word for it and assume that because Intuitive's products make life a bit easier for surgeons, every hospital is going to buy them. Or you could discover that an actual surgeon doesn't really see a huge potential for improvement in the quality of surgery because of the robots.

Again, your interest in Intuitive may not have changed, but at least you're informed. When you're interested in businesses outside your area of expertise -- say, biopharma or advanced technologies -- you need to obtain information straight from the experts. Otherwise, you're at a clear disadvantage, and that's particularly true if you're trying to decide whether innovative treatments from biotechs such as Dendreon (Nasdaq: DNDN) and Amgen (Nasdaq: AMGN) are going to receive FDA approval.

An Expert Weighs In on Your Stock
By Nick Kapur

April 27, 2007
Wall Street analysts know a lot about businesses. But let's say you want to know what makes laser manufacturer IPG Photonics' (Nasdaq: IPGP) product new and different -- and you could talk to one of two people.
The first is an Ivy League graduate with a degree in finance. She covers 30 companies in related fields and has read many reports on the industry. The other is an accelerator physicist with a degree from Stanford.

Trust superior knowledge
Whose advice are you going to take? While both are capable individuals, I'd be willing to put money on the fact that this analyst doesn't spend her spare time in a lab trying to slam together charged particles. In fact, I'd guess that the analyst would rehash some of what she read in IPG's 10-K:
Because fiber lasers are much more energy-efficient and place lower levels of thermal stress on their internal components, they have substantially lower cooling requirements compared to conventional lasers.

The accelerator physicist, however, might have a different perspective:
This really depends on the fiber laser. For similar output powers, the pump diodes will require similar cooling whether we're talking fiber or crystal (again with caveats about relative efficiency, operational modes, environment, etc.).
Regardless of whether you're now more or less interested in buying IPG after reading what the physicist had to say, you're at least now more informed. And you don't need me to tell you that information is the name of the game in this business.
Switching industries, sticking with experts

Now let's say you're an investor and you need to know if Intuitive Surgical's (Nasdaq: ISRG) surgical robots are really going to revolutionize health care. As is custom, you might be inclined to check out an analyst report from a major investment house. Here's a report from Wachovia Capital Markets this month:
Robotic Surgery is a "win-win-win" providing benefits for the hospital (ROI), surgeon (easier surgery), and patient (better outcomes).
On the other side, let's take a look at what you might hear when you talk to a urological surgeon with decades of experience:
There are always going to be stellar surgeons and not so stellar surgeons. Within the robotic field, the hierarchy is already being established -- in the same manner as in open urologic pelvic surgery. Some of the names have been changed, that's all. ... (A patient) will still want to go to the high-volume hospital and surgeon for the best outcomes.

So what's my point?
My point is this: You could take Wachovia's word for it and assume that because Intuitive's products make life a bit easier for surgeons, every hospital is going to buy them. Or you could discover that an actual surgeon doesn't really see a huge potential for improvement in the quality of surgery because of the robots.

Again, your interest in Intuitive may not have changed, but at least you're informed. When you're interested in businesses outside your area of expertise -- say, biopharma or advanced technologies -- you need to obtain information straight from the experts. Otherwise, you're at a clear disadvantage, and that's particularly true if you're trying to decide whether innovative treatments from biotechs such as Dendreon (Nasdaq: DNDN) and Amgen (Nasdaq: AMGN) are going to receive FDA approval.


Experts win
Consider, for example, the case of T. Rowe Price Health Sciences (PRHSX). The fund, which has 96% of its assets invested in health care, has crushed the market over the past decade, posting nearly 13% annualized returns. And where does much of that fund's intelligence come from? Fund manager Kris Jenner -- a money manager who also happens to be a medical doctor. It's worth noting that Jenner has made sizable bets on Gilead Sciences (Nasdaq: GILD), Cephalon (Nasdaq: CEPH), Genentech (NYSE: DNA), and Amgen -- the fund's top four holdings, making up almost 14% of net assets.
So how can you gain expertise? You could sneak into some postgraduate lecture halls, attend industry conferences, or put on a lab coat and waltz into the operating room (well, if they'll let you). Another great resource is our growing community of investors at Motley Fool Rule Breakers, where we specialize in finding high-growth stocks poised to revolutionize their industries. We have scientists theorizing about SunPower's latest solar cell, doctors critiquing Pfizer's pipeline, and engineers who can break down Cisco System's newest products.
Oh, and in case you were wondering, those expert excerpts above were taken straight from our community discussion boards.

The power of knowledge and superior returns
If you're looking at complex industries and you want to make money, it's in your best interest to consult an expert. It's the only way you can gain an edge over the widely published information that saturates the market today. Rule Breakers can help you do so. Click here to try the service free for 30 days with no obligation to subscribe.

Recap last night trades

kenttkw

I had something to attend to just now after telephone conversation, so no time to write about DNDN.

DNDN is down now @15.20
I have yet to see DNDN to break new low that is 14.82

morsid, I cut loss DYN last night after found out negative news
Bought 600 9.96 and sold 9.59
Tonight the price down 9.75 now.

ONSM look interesting now, looking for 2.40

I also bought FMD 200 @37.90, now 38.80
Upgraded by JP Morgan from "neutral to overweight"

kenttkw

If your google ok, please some comments

Revert to stocks with fundamentals

The rally on the stocks below $3.00 by MM’s are over after the released of FDA approval leaving the traders disappointed seeing in disbelief of a sudden sell of by MMs.
It is time for us to look for beaten down stocks above $5.00 and with promising future growth.

Currently, there are 3 stocks put on my radar screen that I believe the share price will turn around on the upside within 2 weeks and thereafter. One of them is CVTX (refer to Video column on top of this blog) and the other 2, PMTI and DYN.

Do your own DD, go to Finance Yahoo and Motley Fool, check the company’s financial statement and business forecast for on coming months and years, and their competitors.

We can trade in small quantity, 100 to 300 shares or more. The trading pattern, range from 0.50 cents to $2.00 and above. The advantage of gains for stocks above $5.00 is greater than stocks below $5.00. There are more coverage for stocks above $5.00 by Top Rank Analysts and buying interests by Institutional Investors.

Stocks below $5.00 mostly played by small time Money Managers and traders and become the target of “Paid Basher”.

My performances on stocks picking above $5.00 to $50.00 are far better than stocks below $5.00. On the average, 8 winners out of 10 picks.

CVTX - Buy on pull back 8.60 to 8.80 before the break out.
DYN – Buy on pull back below 9.90
PMTI – Buy on pull back below 40.50


StockCharts.com server is down, no stock charts attached.


Other stocks on my radar screen

MAS, NVDA, NSTK, AMD, DNDN, FMD, ERTS and TZOO.

Buy The Rumour Sell The News

MGRM, no reaction from investors over the PFE positive results from FDA. Investors were not impressed of Maraviroc suspected to be no safety and risks to the patients. There are many better products available in the market compared to Maraviroc. MGRM share rallied from 2.19 to 2.45 minutes before the news is published in media. The rally last for 2 to 3 minutes, the share of MGRM went down as low as 2.10. It was pure manipulation by MMs and insiders.

Imagine, there were more than 5 millions of MGRM shares within 2 to 3 minutes. I bought MGRM 2K earlier at 2.16 before the news and was ready to push the button to execute sell order. I also observed Poem on Line status shown, buy 2.18 and sell 2.19 and was not flicking at all, whilst Alphatrade, buy 2.38 and sell 2.39. It was shocking to see that Poem server could not update real time update of buy and sell price whenever there was a big volume buy and sell transaction took place. Whilst I was trying to figure out why such thing could happened, MGRM price already down to 2.29. I immediately keyed in the sell order at 2.20 knowing that it was selling pressure, and my sell order done at 2.20.

The real story of the above is that, we can’t rely on Poem on line as it is 1 to 2 minutes delay compared to Alphatrade real time.

ONT, closed at 2.48 and went down to 2.27 after hours after the management announced of the share placement offered by the company to one of the institutional funds. I sold 1K of ONT at 2.30.

VION, I will be monitoring this counter tonight and will post later tonight the company fundamental and their future growth.

Yesterday transaction
MGRM Bought 3K – sold 1K 2.29 and 2K 2.20
ONT Bought 1K 2.21 – sold 1K 2.30
DNDN Bought 300 shares 16.70 – sold 300 shares 16.85

DNDN Pick of the Day

DNDN Pick of the Day

kenttk, finally you are here

Before we begin with the stock to watch tonight, let evaluate our performance in the market. We have been repeating the same mistake, day in day out without analyzing our short coming and weaknesses for months if not years. Why are we ignoring the costly mistake that will siphon our reserves in the bank for our family and our future? I was also experiencing a similar dilemma back in year 1999. It is prudent for us think, plan, get one self organize and take action. We have to release ourselves form this uncomfortable situation, losing streak in the market.

We conducted brainstorming session in the work place with the employees to solve problem and get organized. Similarly, we also have to list down the details of our strengths and weaknesses to turn around from a “loser” to a “winner”. How can we achieve this?

We have to equip ourselves with (i) knowledge, (ii) trading tools, (iii) good machine, (iv) capital, and most crucial is to control our (v) emotion. If we do not have one of the four, it is the same like we are sitting on a chair with a three leg. Can we sit on the chair with three legs?

Let me share with you my experience when I was trading back in year 1999. I bought the stock based on finance yahoo message board recommendation, little knowledge in share market, without trading tools and my emotion outweighed the fundamentals and the results were disasters. Most of us are aware that 95% of traders and investors are losers. We must upgrade ourselves equipped of the above (i) to (v) and become one of the 5% winner camp. If we were to continue trading and missing one of the above 5, I am afraid we are going to lose money every month. May be we will win 2 or 3 out of 10 trades with little gains but lose big on another 7 trades. We have to invest, example subscribe to “real time chart” (is a must for a trader) that would help us to execute the buy and sell order, in order to be successful.

Emotion

We bring our emotion wherever we go, emotion relate to our personal character that will affect us in every decision that we make. We have to eliminate our negative emotion that is exist in our little voice to be independent and thus we are able see our blind spot and make a decision with a clear mind. Logically speaking, there are biases and prejudices in our little voice, we all have ones. “We have to remember negative emotion will outweigh fundamentals and logics.

My trading experience last night.

I was holding 4K shares of MGRM, and my target price to sell is $2.50. However, there was a negative comment of PFE made by Prudential and the high price for MGRM was $2.41, so, I sold my 4K shares with a small gains and the share prices of MGRM went down as low as 2.20 eventually. I do not allow my emotion to outweigh fundamentals, and I can buy back later at a lower price. The point here is that we must be realistic if we know that the target price is not within reach last night, we have to sell with a small gain.

Another case DNDN

I bought DNDN 300 shares at $16.70; the price went down to $16.39 after 15 minutes and was trading range from $16.40 to $16.60. After looking at fundamental, since yesterday was the first day reversal on the uptrend with huge volume, refer to attached chart, I did not sell in panic like most of traders in Wall Street did. The price closed $16.78 at the end of the day, after hour $17.05.

The above are the examples, how emotion can outweigh the fundamentals.

If we look at the chart of DNDN, the rally will usually last 3 to 4 days. But remember, DNDN is also another volatile trading pattern. I believe, there are many smart money, the Big Guys are watching and playing this stock. The result of DNDN products will be released by FDA on May 15.

I also bought 1K of MGRM.

ONT, have been accumulated by MM, range from 2.01 to 2.15, the support.
Next support 2.08 and 2.01.

ONSM, I don’t see any buying interest in the past 3 days.
Support 2.74 and 2.69, so I will buy again within this range.

Let’s practice what you have learned in order to be a successful person in everything you do.

Stock watch for next week

We can’t touch the stock that ran up for the first and 2nd day rally as we do not know the real interest participated by MM and traders. We have yet to really digest the recent announcement made by the company before we could attempt any trade. Due diligence is required on our part to find out the true value of the products and the management who run the company. It will take 2 to 3 days for the analysts, institutional investors to put their stake in the company upon the release of the news. Patient is needed if we want to be a successful trader/investor to make money in this market. Look at the technical and fundamental of the company.

See, what happened to AVNR, there are many traders who got stuck with their shares bought over $5.00 at this moment. We do not know where the bottom and the support are. When we are uncertain of the trade, it would be wise for us not to trade until the third day look out for indicator and fundamental.

We have to go back to basic that are “Risks and Rewards” involves. One can only ascertain the “Rewards” after close monitoring of the stock, technical and fundamental analysis.

ONT

The consolidation and profit taking would have just completed yesterday and it is about to begin the next rally may be 2 to 3 days into next week. As many Wall Street watchers observed that it is the work of Hedge Funds who intentionally shorted the stock to scare the small time traders and investors to sell the stock when they can buy the stock at a discounted price. This is the opportunity for us to buy Big (based on your capital reserves) and ride the uptrend. Buy entry either below 2.30 or 2.40.

ONSM will follow the ONT as they are on the same products.

MGRM

It had been very volatile trading for the past 2 days and also become the target of the Hedge Funds. Meanwhile, Thomas Weisel Partners began covering the biotech sector. The firm says a Monogram Biosciences (nasdaq: MGRM - news - people ) HIV diagnostic test is a trailblazer and predicts Monogram's revenue will continue to gain into next year.

It is against my discipline to jump into this stock within 2 up days, but after looking at the trading pattern of MGRM for 2 days, based on high opening in the morning; it is worth a punt and rides the wave on the uptrend as the “Rewards” are higher than the “Risks”.

I will not make any comments on ONSM at this moment.
Feel free to give your views of the above.

Daily Stock Picks

AVNR is pure speculative trade by MM’s & Day traders. It was very volatile with huge trading range between 3.86 low and high 6.75 and the price closed at 3.90 eventually last night. One cannot attempt trade without “Real Time Chart” for AVNR. Take a closer look at 10 minutes chart below on the right, the price pierced through all the support lines after 10.30 AM US time. Similar patterns were also seen on MDII, MGRM and ONT.
However, the above 4 stocks do not follow Compx and AMEX performance.

ONT is the only counter that could have found the bottom at 2.01 and bounced off closed at 2.15.
Support EMA 9 2.10
Resistance EMA 20 1.87

Trading for a living

Welcome to my blog. We can discuss and express whatever in our mind or our in little voice with regards to US stock market. I shall also open other topics for discussion but not today.

Daily Stock Picks

The outlook of US stock market tonight is in the negative after the profit taking by the Fund Managers and Traders across Asia market today. Yes, like I said, do not expect the market to go up everyday as the profit on paper will only be materialized upon cash out. We will expect a knee jerk reaction in early trading, 1st half an hour by the shortist, Fund managers and traders. However, this panic selling is an opportunity for us to buy at a discounted price.

I don't know whether you have cash out your profit for ONSM yesterday. The support for ONSM at $3.00. Tonight, I will be monitoring ONSM and AVNR, new counter.

Wednesday, April 18, 2007
AVNR is the next DNDN?

AVNR closed @ 5.19

Volume today on a successful study result was humongous - over 80 million shares traded, 2x the outstanding shares! That kind of volume we saw with DNDN after a positive fda review. I don't know what's really going on in terms of who's buying who's selling or who cares about this company, but i do know that 80 million shares trades is significant. As such, i put in a play with June 10 calls and see what happens.

Last year, Cramer recommended this stock at 12. His listeners hated him for that one. lol

Very speculative play, all or nothing.

Link to Finance Yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AVNR

Feel free to post your comments